A very well informed article from a Russian journalist, well connected to the Intelligence community in Russia.
· Apr. 1st, 2011 at 9:06 PM
Present and future of the Libyan operation
Kirill Svetitskiy for REX Information Agency
Thanks Ekaterina Stevens for translate
Kirill Svetitskiy for REX Information Agency
Thanks Ekaterina Stevens for translate
Western intelligence services for so long have been preparing a coup in Libya, that the total failure of the so-called "insurgents" looks like something unexpected. That embarrassment looks even more striking during the armed clashes with the regular Libyan army which is still fighting after the NATO intervention with no aircraft or heavy weapons. The price for this embarrassing information war and direct military agression is alredy much higher than the NATO forces have forseen.
Two sides of different medals
Reasons for the success of the Libyan regular army lie primarily in the fact that it is the army. IN other words, the structure is largely prepared to conduct combat operations. In addition, the Libyans are Bedouins. Bedouin tribal military units are, for example, serving in the Israeli army. Their main specialization is intelligence and sabotage activities. The Israeli military say that among those in the Arab world, the
Bedouins are the only people who really know how to fight, providing quality troops. However, this estimate refers only to the Bedouins who lead a nomadic or semi-nomadic way of life far from the cities, keeping a truly traditional way of life.
On the other hand, the rebels population base is dominated by those from urban areas, and are mostly migrant workers who arrived in Libya on earnings from Egypt. A small number of Libyans actually in the ranks are hastily huddled together in gangs and in the opinion of witnesses are rather pampered and lazy.
Libyan army is fighting for it's homeland, it's legitimate authority and for the high quality of life enjoyed by Libyans, which can not be boasted by the inhabitants of any neighboring country. The rebel mob themselves are not fully aware of that fight. "Kill Gaddafi!" - This is the purpose for which the rebels hang out in a drugged stupor. Portrayed in front of photo and video cameras, a "revolution of migrants" in all its glory, hopes for the promised reward from looting. In a drug intoxicated state, the "revolutionaries" in the early day's of the coup, were responsible for kiling Libyan soldiers in Benghazi, publicly cutting the throat of one. For such entertainments the energy of the slogan "Kill Gaddafi!" is enough. But this is not the purpose for which the so-called "insurgents" will risk their lives seriously in open combat.
In the army, Gaddafi has officers trained in Russia.
For example, the son of Libyan leader, Khamis Gaddafi, finished the Military Academy of Frunze in Moscow. I do not have reliable information that officers from Mali, who studied at the Ryazan Airborne School, are now helping the Libyan army. However, given the influence Gadhafi has among African countries, I can not exclude this possibility. Moreover, in the case of a true NATO invasion of Libya, this kind of assistance will come from the south for certain, and is likely to be sufficiently skilled as well.
It's ridiculous to talk about military training of REBEL MOBS. Russian correspondents, who were brought into their ranks, speak about these crowds with undisguised pity. These randomly moving groups of armed men in general do not have a clue about strategy or even tactics. Al-Qaeda militants, some of which who were transferred to Libya from Iraq and Afghanistan in January-February 2011, also have no experience in regular army combat. Their main profile is sabotage and terrorist attacks, but even these insurgents fall silent when faced with a Libyan regular army tank brigade. Therefore, when an operation against a hastily armed mob is called a civil war, it sounds ludicrous.
If it weren't for illegal outside foreign global super powers with the taste of Libyan oil on their lips, the entire operation of quelling this so-called revolt would take less than a few days. On the other hand, even before the apparent aggression of NATO, launched under the pretext of implementing resolution 1973 UN Security Council, the Libyan army was already at war with another entity. There was different information about whom it was really fighting with.
Western press reports from time to time, with links to various sources, that there are U.S. Special Forces in Libya , as well as some other imported special units. However, it is a fact, not one official in the West is confirming such accusations. Only on March, 31, Peter Bouckaert, a representative of international human rights organization "Human Rights Watch", openly informed US of the presence of land-based military units of foreign states in independent Libya.
In his statement, Bouckaert complained that the Libyan army uses landmines. By itself, the complaint is, of course, delusional because the regular army during the counter-terrorist operations in their country uses the things as it deems are necessary. However, in his statement, Bouckaert slipped and announced in the heat of the moment, NATO'S great military secret. Here's what he said word for word according to Newsru.com: "At the moment ... sappers managed to neutralize about 20 anti-tank and 30 anti-personnel mines of Brazilian and Egyptian-make."
It's easy to imagine that in a month's time, you can teach an Egyptian migrant how to press the trigger of an automatic rifle. But prepare engineers from these people in a month, none of which would not undermine the demining of the number of mines, is technically impossible. Militants who came to Africa from the Middle East, of course, have had experience in subversive things. But, to imagine that they pass delicately through a minefield, scientifically planted by regular troops is not possible. Where did the professional military engineers in the hastily armed mob of migrant workers came from? Mr. Bouckaert did not elaborate, but the answer is obvious - It's just a foreign military experts. Special clearance teams from aggressor countries would be unlikely to be sent to Libya, because they're simply not needed. There is not enough work for the specialist in this type of war. And from generalists, such skills are fully owned by special forces. Thus, it becomes obvious that the real ground clashes before the UN Security Council resolution took place, mostly was between the regular army of Libyan and foreign special forces. Given some of the features of these collisions, we can assume that we are talking specifically about the SAS - Intelligence / sabotage units of the armed forces of the United Kingdom.
After the bombings and rocket attacks on Libya by NATO, the situation has changed dramatically. The Libyan army has lost the ability to use aircraft and armored vehicles that aviation aggressor countries with impunity, take away from the air still in the ground-based systems. Regular units had to leave the part of the previously liberated territory in the east. Gangs in the area without a single shot, first moved in, but soon panicked, jumped on their Toyotas and got away east. It turned out that the Libyan army very professionally started to use against them tactics of desert warefare, first used by the famous unit «L» the aforementioned SAS.
This fighting unit, commanded by David Stirling was the best known in the Libyan desert in 1941, during a battle with the combined German / Italian Axis, destroying 90 enemy aircraft on several airfields far behind the front line. Stirling came up with the tactics of operations through the so-called "long-range desert patrols» (LRDP). These patrols were armed with specially converted three-ton trucks "Chevrolet" mounted with heavy machine guns, and maneuvering SUV "Willys" equipped with machine guns . Unit «L», specially trained for desert operations, including at night, would launch surprise attacks on enemy airfields, destroying aircraft by machine-gun fire and specially made grenades.
The Libyan army also moved from the armored vehicles to SUVs, properly modified for combat operations – with modified large-caliber weapons, air defense artillery (ADA) systems "Igla" and other weapons. The unit began to attack the already retreating host "seeker of democracy." NATO troops have begun to complain that from the air it's absolutely impossible to figure it out which SUVs are "theirs" and which is not. Pilots did make mistakes several times. The tactics invented by the British 70 years ago in the same Libyan Desert disgraced airpower once again, but this time it was NATO's aviators. Effective action from the air on the Libyan army has become impossible, and the rebellious mob rushed to the east again, leaving recently captured cities.
It should be recognized that all these people would have been destroyed long ago if the fighting took place somewhere else, for example, in France during, for example, the French armed rebellion, demanding the resignation of Sarkozy. The Libyan army, unlike the armies of NATO countries is held back by the fact that there are Libyans in the crowd of so-called rebels. When a Libyan is killed, a vendetta would be started for of each death, which still plays an important role in the tribal system of Libya. For the dead, even if a drug addict or a bandit, his tribe may take revenge. And then the situation for the legitimate authorities could be highly complicated. Therefore, the Libyan army, as it was officially announced by the government, seeks only to dispel the armed mobs and drive them outside the territory of Libya. Incidentally, the Western authors of the "revolution of migrants" had that feud in mind. Within the first few days, in the areas they controlled, westerners began distributing mass media misinformation about the legitimate authority in the country. That was how they provoked the Libyans, caught up in the ranks of the armed mobs, to kill the soldiers of the regular army without fear of being pursued in respect to vendetta. If this happened, Libya would have been left to embrace the chaos of tribal vendetta, from which no one government would be able to recover. However, to the good fortune of the Libyan people, this scenario was not realized into a documentary thriller.
Face to face - not to bite his nose
NATO leaders are also aware that in the event of a ground invasion by NATO troops, Libyans would halt all vendetta’s upon one another and would instead focus on the external threat first. In addition, since the full potential of the Libyan Armed Force’s has yet to be used upon the so-called rebels, NATO intelligence suffers from a lack of any real information. The army simply does not show all possibilities for the reasons stated above. This uncertainty, in turn, is a deterrent to NATO in a purely military sense. And in a political sense there is no big desire to quarrel now with African countries, to many of which Libya was helping at a time when Western countries had simply abandoned their former colonies to fend for themselves, unless their lands had sufficient quantities of natural resources useful for large corporations to exploit.
At the same time the other relevant factors began to affect the situation. The sharp criticism against the continuation of bloodshed was made by the Vatican. The influence of the Catholic Church today, of course, should not be overstated, but it still exists in this underhanded manner too. The anti-war movement slowly but surely gains in strength, as long as the fire persists in Libya, the greater the influence of these factors will be on the political situation of the aggressor countries.
If the authority of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya has been low, the upheaval could have been carried out in a few days. The fantastic amounts of money that has been paid for the success of the coup is enough to pay off all major executives of all large media centers in all influential countries, including Russia. The only global media source who was trying to inform viewers about the real state of things was broadcast by Russia Today (RT), which did not turn-coat to the "Revolution of immigrants" side desired by westerners . All other "media moguls” were throwing huge sums of monies in this propaganda war against the Libyan government and Muammar Gaddafi, who actually has no post in this country which is possible to retire from. Now the passions of the world's media has fallen sharply, apparently in connection with a completion date tacit contract between top managers of the media and customers of the information war. Regular messages often adequately reflecting the current events appeared In the broadcast and news of information agencies. Only the Russian national television channels continue to this day the campaign against the Libyan leader. Apparently this is done on behest of the Russian government, which has a decisive influence on them, seeking to "save face" after completely outrageous betrayal of our Libyan business and political partners, at the request of the current U.S. government.
Against this background, It’s most likely to predict the further developing success of the Libyan army to oust the derelict mobs from their country. NATO troops denied the opportunity to provide effective assistance to the bandits from the air by bombs and missiles from the sea. They can bomb, for example, only known storehouses of weapons, hitting at the same time non-military targets (that is inevitable in any "pinpoint attack") and killing civilians. From a military point of view, these attacks have completely lost their meaning, but executives of the military operation will continue rocket and bomb attacks, as they are obliged to create for the political leadership of NATO the illusion of success. Termination shock would mean capitulation. Capitulation will mean a loss of face for all the leaders of NATO countries participating in an anti-Libyan military campaign. Britain, France, Italy and, above all, the U.S. is now covered by the persistence of widespread social unrest. Obama has even threatened to remove Gaddafi from power. In these circumstances, surrender to Libya is not just a capitulation, but a complete and final collapse of political careers, outstanding obligations to the financial sponsors - in short, a tragedy of a lifetime. Only the ground operation could save these characters, but it's extremely risky, even in purely military terms under the current situation.
Therefore they will be weakly and disgustingly bombing Libya. "Cruise missile carrier Democracy” will be slowly and deliberately spewing out death in the residential areas of Tripoli and other cities. The Libyan army will come to Benghazi. Presidents of the USA and France, Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, and British Prime Minister, David Cameron, will blow their heads and demand nonsense from Gaddafi. They will be applying in this case not to al-Gaddafi, but of course to their constituents, as well as sponsors of the bloody spectacle in the face of one of the global financial-political groups. It is a pity, in our time there are no Kukryniks (the famous group of soviet caricaturist actively worked during the Second World War): they would have represented in their caricature these three characters who are jumping and grimacing, waving ties, on a parked aircraft carrier in the Bank of Libya, seeking to nip the nose towering desert Muammar Gaddafi.
Without ceasing to play the ape in the stands, NATO leaders will be hastily evacuating special forces from Libya, communication units and other technical, military and naval components of the NATO countries who are illegally there now - unless, of course, they will not be captured in whole or in part earlier on some chance encounter by Libyan Army Units. Left without their western masters, Libyans who have joined the mobs will lay down their arms, without giving battle. Bandits, consisting of the numbers of migrant workers who rushed from Egypt, will choke the borders once again. Legitimate authority throughout the country of Libya will be restored, and the Libyan authorities will begin the normal, albeit difficult, effort to reform the system of tribal and social arrangements.
The Coalition could be saved by Muammar Gaddafi’s departure from Libya, whom the people of Libya believe to be not the leader of the state, simply the leader of the nation and a symbol of resistance. But now, even the biggest Western optimists, despite all the rhetoric, know exactly this: Muammar Gaddafi, nor anyone in his family will leave Libya. To poison or assassinate Gadhafi is impossible, since all reasonable security measures have been taken by Libya's leadership long ago after a mysterious "coma" of President Mubarak in neighboring Egypt. Stupid and bloody games of the bombing of Tripoli neighborhoods called "Hit Gaddafi with a missile" has not brought success either, and it is unlikely it will in the future. Only troubles.
The only chance that remains for members of the coalition is some monstrous provocation. March 30th & 31st, were the dates the coalition planned to attack and destroy a convoy of CIS countries citizens from Tripoli to Tunisia. The Libyan Army was to be blamed for the massacre, which the coalition calls “Gaddafi Troops”. However, there was an unplanned leak, which quickly and widely spread threw interested parties, leading to the cancellation of the attack. A major terrorist attack in Europe or in the USA is very probable in the very near future. Perhaps there will be a series of terrorist acts immediatly revealing the remains of some Libyans. Or claims will be made that Libyan remains were found. The propaganda machine will work again in full force. In the next few hours after the attack (or series), ground operations of NATO troops in Libya will begin, which at best for this country, if in the early days drown in the blood of the invaders and will be stopped. Judging by the expressive statements of the leaders of the aggressor countries, that is the price these leaders are almost willing to pay for "saving face".
In the worst case, the ground operations will lead to horrendous civilian and invader casualties. Addressing a protracted war - like the one that occurred in Somalia. After a year or two years, NATO troops will withdraw from Libya, leaving behind controlled chaos wanted by strong financial circles, having today a decisive influence in the U.S. on Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama. The United Kingdom and the United States will warm this chaos to threaten nearby continental Europe, making Europian leaders more amenable. Because it is critically important in a situation where the financial position of the United States more than bad, and the UK just sad. The first political casualty of this rapid process, it turns out that it’s funny, one of the main initiators of the military operations against Libya, French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Italy keeping in the shadows will not be the first or hardest hit by this North African violence, as is thought. The first will be namely France, with its already hot inter-ethnic relations. In the medium term, the Libyan flaming chaos torch will become part of the exploded "Islamic arc" of aggression which will be directed first to Central Asia, and then - and in countries located further north. That is, in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Further planned process of controlled disintegration and controlled chaos should roll up to China and force this growing world leader to negotiate with the present leaders at the least favorable conditions.
Financial and political circles, the center of decision making which is now closer to the less demonstrative London than to the more shrill and more manageable Washington, thus, grow homunculus. Homunculus in this "New World Order" will play the role of the most dangerous weapon. On the role of the nucleus of such a homunculus, because of its passionarity, selected populations of Arab countries. In the last decade, this purposeful activity became apparent: starting with Afghanistan, the Western countries then destroyed the state of Iraq. Barack Obama, since coming to power, has hastened the changing matrix of the Islamic world. When coups were organized in Egypt and Tunisia, the brighter the armed conflict became in Yemen, was raised by a Shiite uprising in Bahrain, began mass demonstrations in Kuwait. Never before has the Islamic world blown up in so many points simultaneously.
Libya and Syria, following it, so - it is only a step.
Until the beginning of operations in Libya, all went well. But the shameful failure of the operation in that country, carried out by the hand of NATO, could lead to cancellation of the project to create a homunculus in general. As big as the stakes are in this conflict, and because so much money and resources have been invested in information warfare, political pressure on Russia, punching a UN Security Council resolution that violates the UN Charter, and other efforts, in addition to their own expenses for preparation and conduct military operation.
That is how the designs and calculations look now. However, life is often more difficult than planned. A failed attempt to quickly reach the purpose for which it was fabricated, "revolution of immigrants" in Libya. Likewise, it could bring at some stage the preparation of large-scale terrorist attacks. Global financial-political groups that are today in supporting roles, may break the game of the group that controls today the actions of the Anglo-Saxon friends, London and Washington. And then the conflict will end only as a loss of face for the leaders of several countries, only their resignation or impeachment would be left.
In this case, from the three leaders of anti-libyan campaign, which includes Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy, the first two will be much more valuable for their sponsorship, having been associated with a greater number of political projects. Countries led by them live in harmony with the more "advanced" in terms of global financial players, the Anglo-Saxon economic model. They are not in the euro zone. As I have previously said, and at such scenario cranky Sarkozy again will be responsible for the failure. He will be blamed for everything that happened. And silenced, not will to say too much. Just to quietly and shamefully under the whistle of the crowd, will come into eternal retirement.
It would be better, of course, if anti-war sentiment in the countries of the coalition and strong involvement of Russia and China in the process, as well as any other unexpected factors have forced coalition disgrace in a shorter time.
For Sarkozy there would be no difference. But much less blood would be shed.